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21世紀科學的五大突破


據預測21世紀科學將出現五大突破。

  我們將知道我們從哪里來。為什么宇宙會存在?換一種說法,為什么會有物質存在而不是空無一物?自20世紀20年代以來,科學家已經了解到宇宙正在擴張。這就是說宇宙一定是在過去的某一特定時候開始形成的。科學家們甚至已經提出種種理論,詳盡地描繪宇宙從它形成的最初一瞬間一直到現在的演變過程。在未來的幾十年中,由功能異常強大的新型望遠鏡所帶來的數據將會使這些理論更加精確。同時,我們將進一步了解物質在宇宙初期不可思議的高溫高壓下,是如何表現的。

  我們將破譯遺傳密碼并征服癌癥。19世紀的歌劇中,如果女主角在第一幕中咳嗽的話,觀眾便會知道她將在第三幕中因肺結核而死。但是由于20世紀抗生素的出現,曾經是那樣可怕的不治之癥現在成了服點兒藥片就萬事大吉的事情。由于科學家對基因密碼更加了解,而且已將研究深入到了分子水平,許多嚴重的疾病(比如癌癥)對人類的威脅將會變得越來越小。通過使用生產出的“治療性”病毒,科學家們得以用健康的基因取代受癌癥破壞的脫氧核糖核酸。或許這一過程只是通過一粒藥片或是一劑注射便可完成。

  我們將活得更長(120歲?)。如果說通常的衰老過程主要是我們細胞內的一場激烈而不可見的競賽的話(一場對我們的脫氧核糖核酸進行破壞同我們體內的細胞對被破壞的組織進行修復的競賽),那么21世紀遺傳醫學的巨大成就會使我們能夠控制、甚至逆轉這一過程。但是在我們促使科學家再做得更多一些之前,不妨想一想:我們確實想要生活在一個沒有人衰老,很少有孩子出生(因為地球只能承受那么多的人)的世界上嗎?新奇的主意將從何而來?多活的那些年我們該做些什么呢?

  我們將“管理”地球。下一個世紀,我們將不再談論天氣,而是主動地去調理天氣。我們將逐漸學會如何預測人類活動對地球、對全球氣候以及對生態系統所帶來的影響。擁有了這些知識,人們將更樂意用它來對我們這個星球的“行為方式”進行管理。
我們將“管理”地球。下一個世紀,我們將不再談論天氣,而是主動地去調理天氣。我們將逐漸學會如何預測人類活動對地球、對全球氣候以及對生態系統所帶來的影響。擁有了這些知識,人們將更樂意用它來對我們這個星球的“行為方式”進行管理。

  我們將擁有人腦的“路線圖”。這是21世紀的一個真正的“尖端領域”:人腦是我們所知道的最復雜的系統。它含有1000多億個神經元(大概是銀河系中星星的數量),其中每一個神經元又連接到另外1000多種其他神經元。下一個世紀的早期,我們將應用先進的磁共振呈像形式繪制詳細的人腦神經元運作圖。當你讀一個詞,說一個詞,想一個詞以及做其他事情的時候,我們將能肯定地說出哪些神經元在工作。


It is predicted that there will be 5 scientific breakthroughs
in the 21st century.


We'll know where we came from. Why does the universe exist? To put it another
way, why is there something instead of nothing? Since the 1920s, scientists
have known the universe is expanding, which means it must have started
at a definite time in the past. They even have developed theories that
give a detailed picture of the evolution of the universe from the time
it was a fraction of a second old to the present. Over the next couple
of decades, these theories will be refined by data from extraordinary powerful
new telescope. We will have a better understanding of how matter behaves
at the unfathomably high temperatures and pressures of the early universe.


We'll crack the genetic code and conquer cancer. In l9th-century operas,
when the heroine coughs in the first act, the audience knows she will die
of tuberculosis in Act 3. But thanks to 20th-century antibiotics, the once-dreaded,
once-incurable disease now can mean
nothing more serious than taking some pills. As scientists learn more about
the genetic code and the way cells work at the molecular level, many serious
diseases -- cancer, for one -- will become less threatening. Using manufactured
'therapeutic' viruses, doctors will be able to replace cancer-causing damaged
DNA with healthy genes, probably administered by a pill or injection.


We’ll live longer (120 years?).
If the normal aging process is basically a furious, invisible contest in
our cells--a contest between damage to our DNA and our cells' ability to
repair that damage--then 2lst-century strides in genetic medicine may let
us control and even reverse the process. But before we push scientists
to do more, consider: Do we really want to live in a world where no one
grows old and few children are born because the planet can hold only so
many people? Where would new ideas come from? What would we do with all
that extra time?

We’ll 'manage' Earth.
In the next millennium, we'll stop talking about the weather but will do
something about it. We'll gradually learn how to predict the effects of
human activity on the Earth, its climate and its ecosystems'. And with
that knowledge will come an increasing willingness to use it to manage
the workings of our planet.

We’ll have a brain road map'.
This is the real 'final frontier of the 2lst century: The brain is the
most complex system we know. It contains about l00 billion neurons (roughly
the number of stars in the Milky Way), each connected to as many as l,000
others. Early in the next century, we will use advanced forms of magnetic
resonance imaging to produce detailed maps of the neurons in operation.
We'll he able to say with certainty which ones are working when you read
a word, when you say a word, when you think about a word, and so on.
(轉自Person of the Year: George W. Bush)

 


 

 

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